Kotsay needs to get more rest. He is playing well but why everyday? He should be getting a day or two off a week. Backs usually seem to flare up when you wear yourself out. Once the back acts up, it is hell getting rid of it.
I would drop Kelly Johnson down in the order. I would put Escobar at the leadoff spot and Kotsay at the 2 spot. KJ should hit seventh. KJ is not getting ahead in counts right now because pitchers are being aggressive with him because Escobar, Chipper, Tex, Frenchy and McCann are behind him. Maybe if he was dropped down, pitchers would pitch him less aggressively. That would work to the advantage of his immense patience. He’s too often finding himself behind in the count.
I’m not hitting the panic button on KJ. I think he will be a fine top of the order hitter. I also happen to agree that he will be a poor man’s Chase Utley. I think he and the lineup will be very strong with him at the top of the order.
However, I also think he and the lineup can be even stronger if he hits lower in the order. I think he will be pitched differently. I think he will provide McCann and Frenchy the protection they have rarely had. I don’t think KJ needs much protection because of his patience. My thinking is that he might be the type that is even better with less protection because of his patience. I also think Kotsay would be even better at the top of the order being fed fastballs he can drive.
I think there might be obviously be a resultant dropoff in OPS from KJ to Kotsay. I expect KJ to have a .830 OPS this season. I expect Kotsay to have a .750 or so OPS by the end of the season at the bottom of the order. If Kotsay is put at the top of the order, I think his OPS could be pushed to .770 to .800.
I dunno. Just wanted to make sure people did not think I am hitting the panic button on KJ. I just think what makes him so great for this lineup is that he can be either a run creator because of his OBP or a run producer because of his SLG no matter where he hits in the lineup.
I just happen to think that putting Kotsay up higher in the lineup might increase his OPS 20 to 30 points and dropping KJ lower in the order to protect McCann and Frenchy might increase McCann and Frenchy’s OPS 20 to 30 points and that KJ’s OPS itself might increase 20 to 30 points lower in the order.
My thinking is that the OPS dropoff caused by flip flopping Kotsay and KJ would be offset by a combined OPS increase from KJ, Kotsay, McCann, and Frenchy of 60-120 OPS points.
I dunno. Just thinking out loud and putting that out there for people to think about. Nothing is static about their numbers. Their stats are influenced so much be the dynamics of where and when they hit and how that causes changes in how they are pitched.
One reason why I called KJ a poor man’s Chase Utley is the same reason Jimmy Key was once called a poor man’s Greg Maddux. Key, like KJ now, was darn good. But Key was never close to being as good as Maddux and I don’t think KJ will ever be as good as Utley has been the last few years.
Utley and KJ are different hitters. KJ draws walks once every 7.5 plate appearances. Utley draws a walk once every 10 or 11 plate appearances. Utley is more of a pure hitter. Utley can match KJ in OBP because he is a great hitter who can hit for a high average. Utley’s AVG makes up in OBP what he gives up in walks to KJ. Being a good hitter and having a higher AVG also enables Utley to gain 30 to 50 points on Kelly in SLG just based on base hits alone. When you account for the extra base hits added, his SLG will always be 50-70 points higher than KJ. That’s why I think KJ will always be a poor man’s Utley much the same way Jimmy Key was a poor man’s Greg Maddux.
It could also be argued that KJ is a rich man’s version of Mark Bellhorn. They both have similar approaches at the plate. They both take lots of pitches and take walks and strike out alot as a result and drive balls for extra base hits. KJ is a better hitter than Bellhorn however because he does not strike out even close to the rate Bellhorn whiffed. That is why Bellhorn at his best was nothing more than a poor man’s KJ. If you look at Bellhorn’s 2002 season with the Cubs and his 2004 season with the Red Sox, you can see alot of KJ in his numbers.
I just think when it is said and done, KJ will end up being a slightly better version of Todd Walker. There’s no shame in that. Look at how much trade demand there was for KJ. Look at how Billy Beane and Theo Epstein both obtained Walker and Bellhorn. The same reasons those two wanted Walker and Bellhorn are the same reasons KJ was the most sought after Brave this past offseason. KJ is a rich man’s Todd Walker, a very rich man’s Mark Bellhorn, and a poor man’s Chase Utley. There is no shame in that.
McCann should continue to bat 5th against righties instead of Frenchy. For his career against righties, Frenchy has a .264 AVG with a .300 OBP and a .431 SLG. For his career against righties, McCann has a .303 AVG with a .360 OBP and a .504 SLG. It’s clear McCann should bat 5th against righties and that Frenchy should bat 5th against lefties.
